For the first time in a decade, Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is leading the vote in front of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the run-up to the general election in September. ۔ This unprecedented situation is very much indebted to the right-wing candidate of the Center, Armin Lasheet, who has made many mistakes.
Angela Merkel Going, but he CDU Will: This was the most likely scene. German The general election will be held on September 26. For the first time in 15 years, the Center Left SPD outperformed the Conservative CDU. Elections. With just 10 days left to vote, the Social Democrats are comfortably ahead with 25 percent of the required electorate, while Merkel’s CDU has only 21 percent.
“This is surprising because the SPD was stuck at about 20 percent or less of the national voting intentions,” Thomas Pugontke, a political scientist at the University of Dسلsseldorf, told France24.
Lasheet: Laughing and vague.
At the same time, the CDU has reduced voter intentions by about 10 points since mid-July. Polls are certainly not good news, “but in this case, they confirm the trend observed in the campaign for several weeks, i.e. the difficulties of the conservative candidate,” Munster told France 24.
Armin Lasheit, the CDU candidate on the right who wants to replace Merkel as chancellor, doesn’t like it. In particular, he made several mistakes during the catastrophic floods in Germany in mid-July. One picture in particular did not diminish with the Germans: a laughing corpse standing behind Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, speaking in a serious tone about the devastation caused by the heavy rains.
And that’s not all. Schubert said he “looks particularly unimportant in his positions and is often very vague.” In the first of three scheduled televised debates with the other two leading candidates – Olaf Schulz for SPD and Analina Beerbach for Greens, he was the only person who did not say where he was on his first official visit as Chancellor. Will go “It’s a simple and classic question,” Schubert said.
He did well in the second debate, but once again failed to knock out.
Laschet is not just responsible for his own troubles. Current events have not helped him. Floods, epidemics and the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan are all issues that allow those who already have political responsibilities to shine. And that’s what Schulz did. “As finance minister, he promised to be a savior, for example, by not failing to release the funds needed for flood victims or to spend on dealing with the health crisis,” Schubert said. For. “
Where is Angela Merkel?
The CDU is also reluctant to support Lashit, and appears to “not know how to represent the party’s ideology,” said Wolfgang Schroeder, a political scientist at the Vincent Shiftzentrum Berlin (Berlin Scientific Research Center). Told France24.
“You can’t campaign alone,” Lashit said.
Even Merkel remained silent for a long time in her campaign in support of her party’s candidate. “The absence of the chancellor, who could have used some of his popularity to help Lashita, is one of the great mysteries of this campaign for me.
Include the sounds on the right that are blocking its path. Pogontke said Marcus Soder, head of the Center Wright Christian Social Union in Bavaria, did not miss an opportunity to make that point. The political scientist sees the failure to bring the truth with him as one of the key weaknesses of the CDU candidate’s campaign: “He has completely failed to surround himself with his team, which means the right “Everyone is playing for themselves.”
Contrary to the CDU’s differences, the SPD “has managed to become a party close to its candidate, one of the key figures in the current government,” Marshall noted.
An enchanting picture.
Lausheit had hoped to be the face of succession after Merkel, but in the end, “Schulz appears to be the natural successor to the outgoing chancellor,” Schroeder said. “He has the same political pragmatism, knows how to be very flexible and has real experience on the international scene.”
If he wants to avoid a CDU defeat in the next election, Lashit has little time to turn things around. Schroeder said the most likely scenario is that “conservatives will play Judgment Day and paint a bleak future if a left-wing government comes.”
It is difficult to say whether such a strategy will work. On the one hand, such an approach may work with the Germans because “they are politically conservative and do not like experiments in government.”
On the other hand, the “apocalyptic” argument is likely to fail because, for many, Scholz is not terrible, because “he is more of a continuum than any other candidate, because he is already in government.”
In the event that Lashit fails to recover, a new scenario is being debated at the federal level in Germany: the possibility of a three-party government. But will it happen with or without the CDU?
This article is adapted from it. Original in French.