October 18, 2021

After the SPD top election, the focus shifted to Germany’s Green and Liberal Kingmakers.

Issued:

Following Chancellor Angela Merkel’s defeat of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Sunday’s general election, members of Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) said Tuesday they would join the Greens and the Liberal Free Democrats (FD) this week. The ruling party wants to start talks with Pakistan. . But the two smaller parties have already started talking to each other.

Although he was the two chancellor candidates representing the two largest parties, the SPD. Olaf Schulz And CDU Armin Lashit. No longer the center of attention. German PoliticsSpotlight is run by FDP leader Christian Lindner and Jodi. spinach., Analina Berbach and Robert Hebeck, who know that no party can be formed. Unity Without them.

The two parties met on Monday before holding talks with the CDU or SPD. This is the first time in German history and a major gap with the country’s political traditions, noted Klaus Schubert, a professor of political science at the University of Monster. “Previously, the party that came out on top in the election (in this case, the SPD) always set the agenda in coalition negotiations after the vote – and the Germans are generally very keen on this kind of political tradition.”

Schubert added that this was a clever move by the Greens and the FDP. “If the two sides establish good relations, they will be in a position to have very strong negotiations against both the SPD and the CDU, with the means to really implement their policy agenda.”

‘There is no choice but to unite’

The efforts of the two smaller parties differ greatly from the last round of coalition talks since the last election in 2017. Merkel wanted to link her CDU with the Greens and the FDP for the so-called Jamaican Alliance. But it ended up forming another “great alliance” with the SPD when Londoner refused to sign a deal with the Greens – arguing that their special program was in line with the FDP’s preferred economic liberalism. Did not have

In fact, Lindner did not draw his nets against the Greens during the September 26 election – spending most of the campaign arguing that if his environmental policies came to power, they would destroy Germany’s economic dynamics. ۔

Nevertheless, this time the two parties have no choice but to meet, said Sudha David Wolp, deputy director of the German Martial Fund’s Berlin office. “Linder can’t afford chaos after refusing to join the coalition in 2017 – this is his last chance. And as far as the Greens are concerned, they feel that the environmental emergency has made them part of the coalition government. Leaves no choice but to do

Hans Verlander, a professor of politics at the University of Dresden, suggested that the Greens and the FDP were the two most popular parties under the age of 30 – and that it could act as a glue between them. “They will try to play their image as youth groups by emphasizing policies such as digitizing government activities or promoting gender equality.”

At the same time, the Greens and the FDP will have to circle each other’s red lines. This will be a difficult tactic for both sides. The Greens want to raise taxes on the rich Germans – and that would be skeptical of the FDP.

The Greens are keen to put public spending on a more environmentally friendly economy, while the FDP sees itself as a defender of Germany’s strict fiscal conservatism.

But the two sections are already considering ideas that would allow them to square these constituencies, such as “creating a kind of budget to fight change without including this extra expenditure in Germany’s budget deficit.” “

The distribution of top jobs is another way to keep both the FDP and the Greens happy. “Londoner has basically run from the roof that he wants to be finance minister,” observed David Wilp. Greens co-leader Heibek also wants the role, he continued, but taking control of the State Department could satisfy him and his party.

Schulz or Lashit?

Despite resolving all issues between the Greens and the FDP, they cannot ignore the importance of the party that will lead their coalition. SPD parliamentary leader Ralph Mitznich expressed his displeasure that the first reaction of the two smaller parties to the election results was to talk to each other: “It would be nice if the Greens and the FDP would focus on meeting us this week.” He told reporters on Tuesday.

From a purely strategic point of view for the Greens and the FDP, Lasith seems to be the best bet for Merkel’s success. “His entire political survival depends on his ability to form a government and become chancellor, so he will certainly be willing to accept a much more substantial basis than Schulz in negotiations with the Greens and the FDP,” Schubert said. “

Schubert explained that the deal with the Conservatives would be a strategy for the FDP, which is ideologically the closest party to the CDU. If all goes well, the FDP can claim credit, but if the government performs poorly, the FDP can blame the CDU and use its right-wing votes. Can continue. “

However, from a more practical point of view, forming an alliance with Lashit could play badly because he “looks like a big loser in this election”.

In light of this, Schulz seems a natural choice for a chancellor to lead a coalition, including the Greens and the FDP – although the SPD wants to bridge differences between personnel and policies, and the aspirations of both parties are a “commotion”. There will be “action,” David Wolp predicted.

However, it is clear that all of Germany’s mainstream parties want to end an agreement before Christmas – if only to stop a prepared process and ensure a dignified end to the Merkel era. It would be strange if he had to speak at the end of the year as the lame chancellor (this would be his 17th) during the political battle over the next coalition.

This article has been translated. Original in French.

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