October 22, 2021

Who can start a civil war in Afghanistan?

The rise of the Taliban movement in Afghanistan has forced the international media to talk about reviving the country’s civil war. Will there be a civil war in Afghanistan?

When the Northern Alliance (with the cooperation of the United States and several Western countries) drove the Taliban out of Kabul in 2001, their political opponents and many fighters also challenged the authority of the Taliban * leaders.

After a victorious return 20 years later, the Taliban * are trying to form a government and establish institutions of government. Opposition groups may try to resist or seek political and economic gain, but none of them can boast of the massive influence that radical Islamists have.

Islamic State – ISIS *

According to Western observers, a branch of Wilayat-e-Khorasan (ISIS * -Aid) could cause bloodshed to the general public, as happened at the Hamid Karzai International Airport on August 26, but the movement will not allow the authority Can’t threaten Taliban *

In this branch of ISIL *, or ISIL *, there are no more than 4,000-5,000 militants operating in eastern Afghanistan, mainly on the border with Pakistan in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces. Unlike the larger Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan’s ISIS * fighters are capable of attacking some civilian targets, however. They are wary of direct confrontation with the national security forces or the state political system.

Experts have no evidence of support for Islamic State. In rural areas, where locals supported the Taliban between 2001 and 2021.

Panjshir Resistance and Northern Alliance

The Taliban have reportedly taken control of the Panjshir Valley. Taliban flags are seen waving in the air in Bazarak, the capital of Panjshir Province.

As far as resistance is concerned, it is represented primarily by Tajiks, led by Ahmed Massoud, the son of the famous military leader Ahmed Shah Massoud. Later, together with the deposed government’s vice president, Amrullah Saleh, formed the Afghan National Resistance Front (formerly known as the Panjshir Resistance).

In the absence of any particular foreign support, Massoud’s resistance focused on protecting the region’s sovereignty and repelling Taliban attacks. He suggested dialogue based on the principle of “live and let live”. However, this is an outdated tactic, and the movement has already failed.

General (currently Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum), Uzbek and Turkmen, T.Rain in Soviet military establishments, Who commanded the Afghan government army during the 1980s, has been fighting the Taliban since the beginning. The Afghan Chapai, as he was known for his temperament, had a significant relationship with the United States in the operations of the Northern Alliance, which drove the Taliban out of Kabul in 2001. Uzbekistan in August

The ethnic Tajik Atu Muhammadi Noor, who trained the mujahideen to fight against Soviet troops, for which he was dubbed a “teacher”, then became the mujahideen commander of the Islamic Society of Afghanistan and allied with Dostum. He also fought against the Taliban. * Like Dostum, he had to hide in Uzbekistan.

Dostum and Noor swore allegiance to Masood, but they could have avoided it if Panjshir had fallen to the Taliban. Even before the hostilities began, Noor preferred politics to military action, as he told Reuters.

The lion of Herat and Iran.

Since 2001, the leading power in western Afghanistan, including the country’s third-largest city, Herat, has been in the hands of Iranian-backed Tajik Muhammad Ismail Khan. During the Afghan War (1979-1989), the Commander-in-Chief of the Western United Group was nicknamed:

  • Turan (Captain) Ismail,
  • The Lion of Herat.

In 1992, he served as Governor of Herat Province, Minister of Water Resources and Energy. He survived several assassination attempts. During one of them, he was injured and lost his son.

On August 13, the Taliban captured him and placed him under house arrest, but three days later, Ismail Khan appeared in the Iranian city of Mashhad. Analysts speculate that he may be able to get help from Tehran, but so far Iran’s strategy has not been consistent.

Islamic Party of Afghanistan

The biggest conspiracy is about the possibility of former Taliban enemy Gulbuddin Hekmatyar joining the Taliban * government. Hekmatyar, the founder of the Islamic Party of Afghanistan, received the most support from the CIA in the war against the Soviet Union. One of the most brutal Mujahideen leaders of the 1990s before the Taliban, he served as prime minister in 1996.

After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, Hekmatyar went into hiding in Pakistan, entrusting his forces with the task of overthrowing Hamid Karzai’s government. After returning from exile, he signed a peace deal with Afghan authorities in September 2016.

Today, Hekmatyar and his former enemy, Hamid Karzai, as well as former Afghan Prime Minister Abdullah Abdullah, are negotiating with the Taliban to form a new government in Afghanistan. Hekmatyar reaffirmed his commitment to work with the Taliban, even if he does not become a minister: “There are no conditions for our participation in the government, except for the appointment of qualified people.”

* Terrorist organizations banned in Russia.

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