Experts are trying to analyze the current situation and understand what scenario will be implemented in Belarus. There are many versions, but no one dares to say anything specific.
Of course, the political crisis in Belarus is comparable to the revolution in Ukraine. However, Russia has not backed Svetlana Tikanovskaya, and Belarus’s leadership is unlikely to resign. Europe has not even expressed support for Belarussian presidential candidates.
Authors of May Day is the date of the dive The Telegram channel believes that Belarus will eventually go through a mild South Ossetian scene.
One must bear in mind the fact that Belarusians, unlike Ukraine, are not divided into “West”, “Center” and “East”. Belarus, as a nation, is attracted to the “West”, no matter how strange.
Final reconciliation with Russia will be the only option if the current “multi-vector” government eventually ends Western European cooperation.
“This has already happened. Alexander Lukashenko and his team have become personal non-Greta in Europe. The absence of national division in Belarus will not allow Poland or any other state to provoke separatist sentiments within Belarus.”
If one listens to any of the new wave of Belarusian politicians, one will not hear any writing about the priority of integration with Russia. Do Belarusians want to join Russia?
“Most of them see the United Government as a political bargaining chip for the current government. If the leadership is changed, the country’s prospects are not clear. Alexander Lukashenko’s rivals,” say network experts.
At the same time, Belarusians are well aware that Russia can provide only two types of assistance.
- Russia either helps the current government run,
- Or Russia helps its citizens in hostile areas.
As long as Alexander Lukashenko does not resort to the use of military force against his own citizens, Russia will bear, as he puts it, “all the suffering of the Belarusian people.”
In the most difficult scenario of development of the political situation in Belarus, citizens will face difficult choices: Either stay in Belarus and die under the bullets of your army, or become a Russian and expect security guarantees from the Russian president.
We want to draw a parallel with the selection of South Ossetians. The international community was forced to accept the new Ossetian reality. Most of the people living in the Tskhinvali area of Georgia began to obtain Russian citizenship under the threat of armed intervention by Georgian troops.
Russia, of course, pushed Russia forward out of humanitarian sympathy. Ossetians living permanently in Georgia did not have any special conditions for this. However, in 2008 the Russian operation became a decisive factor in forcing George to make peace.
Based on the above, no one expects Russian military intervention in Belarus. Belarusians are not threatened from outside.
The choice will not be easy for Belarusians: war or peace in virtual Russia. Russia will not annex Belarus. Russia wants to take advantage of Belarus as a separate state. However, Belarus will not be completely independent.
Meanwhile, according to TASSLukashenko said Belarusians and Russians “have a common fatherland from Brest to Vladivostok.”
“We are brothers today,” Lukashenko said in Baranochi. “Why are we expected to make a fuss in the West?” We will draw appropriate conclusions. The Russian president and I have already drawn these conclusions. It doesn’t matter what they say there, it doesn’t matter if someone barks at our squares here, we will protect our common homeland. “This is our Fatherland from Brest to Vladivostok,” Lukashenko said.
The topic of conversation between Putin and Lukashenko, who is due to visit Moscow in the next two weeks, becomes clear. Putin and Lukashenko will decide together in what form they should save “our fatherland” – as a united state or something else.