Ansi forecasts a sharp decline in the unemployment rate in the third quarter, with 7.6% of the French active population compared to 8% in the second quarter, which is linked to strong employment growth. According to the latest economic report.
“Strong job growth in the middle of the year will result in a reduction in unemployment from an average of 8% in the second to third quarter to 7.6% in the third quarter,” about one point lower than two years ago. The French National Bureau of Statistics and Economic Studies saidINSEE).
Ansi predicts that the 7.6% rate is expected to remain in the fourth quarter.
In its last economic note in July, the institute expects the unemployment rate to stabilize around 8.2% at the end of 2021, after 8.1% at the beginning of the year.
Ansi stressed that it is linked to the “shock wave”. Covid-19 The health crisis is “very difficult in terms of the labor market”, with salaried employment surpassing pre-crisis levels by the second quarter of 2021.
The pace of employment is expected to slow slightly by the end of the year, but overall, about 500,000 net new salaried jobs will follow the 300,000 or so net job losses recorded in 2020. Note.
At the same time, economic activity should “return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year – but without exceeding that, in contrast to employment,” which is unchanged from its growth forecast for 2021. Maintains at 6.25%.